Comet Tsuchinshan-Atlas may be disintegrating

As reported by EarthSky this week it looks as though Comet Tsuchinshan-Atlas may be in the process of disintegrating. Discovered in early 2023, the comet had the possibility of brightening substantially around the time of its closest approach to Earth and the sun in October, 2024. But in recent months, as Comet C/2023 A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS has been approaching the inner solar system, it should have been brightening. And observers were perplexed because they did not notice a brightness increase during the past three months.

Comet A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS from Puerto Rico on July 8, 2024.
Image via Efrain Morales/ Eddie Irizarry

I was cautiously anticipating getting to image this comet in September and October, but over the years of my comet observing I recognize that comets are fickle, and they do what they want to do. It was in October of 2013 that I purchased my EdgeHD telescope in preparation for comet ISON, which was expected to reach naked eye visibility in November and rival the greatest comets of all time. Then, in late November, news came that ISON was rapidly disintegrating. It never survived it's swing around the sun! 

Hopes were widely expressed that C/2023 A3 would become a naked-eye object about the time of its perihelion passage in late 2024. However, based on its past and current performance, the comet is expected to disintegrate before reaching perihelion. Independent lines of evidence point to its forthcoming inevitable collapse.

However, as I have said, comets are notorious for being erratic and unpredictable. So, we will have to wait a few more weeks and see what happens to the comet next. But I'm not very optimistic about the outcome.